Stress testing Islamic finance

Ayah el Said and Rachel Ziemba discussed risk management considerations comparing stress testing in conventional finance and the Islamic finance industry on RGEMonitor.

For Islamic financial institutions, a plausible scenario means factoring in possible contractions in several of the economies that have been the centers for Islamic finance as well as significant asset market corrections which would weaken the balance sheets of Islamic financial institutions. A stress scenario should factor in at least another 40% drop in property prices in Dubai and considerable drops in other markets. The increased risks of investment losses on the one hand, and rising non-performing loans on the other, adds to the vulnerability of Islamic banks.

Dubai`s credit situation

Rachel Ziemba analysis the credit situation of Dubai on 17 February on RGEmonitor observing that in recent weeks CDS spreads on the debt of Dubai’s largest State-linked vehicles like Dubai Holding etc shot up dramatically after Abu Dhabi announced a unilateral recapitalization of its banks. The cost to buy prrotection on the 1 year bond has doubled since late January and now stands at 1073bps. This is deemed linked to the previous market opinion that Abu Dhabi would support Dubai, while the recent step to just re-capitalise their own banks caused some doubts. The property bust in Dubai goes on with severe consequences.

The full report shows an excellent overall summary of the situation. It can be accessed via the link "source" below.

Islamic Securitization - The Right Way Forward?

Heiko Hesse, Andreas Jobst and Juan A. Sole published on RGEmonitor on 13 February an analysis regarding Islamic Securitization and the grown interest for Islamic finance during the financial crisis.

Islamic finance is driven by the general precept of extending religious doctrine in the shari’ah to financial agreements and transactions. Predatory lending, deteriorating underwriting standards, and a series of incentive problems between originators, arrangers, and sponsors, of which all have infested the conventional securitization process, belie fundamental Islamic principles.

The article linked in the source relates the characteristics of this form of securitization to calls for enhanced disclosure and standardization, ratings agency reforms, and better transparency of origination and underwriting practices in conventional structured finance. In particular, it assesses the potential of conflicts of interest (which became apparent in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis) to contaminate the integrity of the securitization process if it were conducted in compliance with shari’ah principles.

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