IslamicFinance.de

Bahrain's central bank will release a new regulatory framework for takaful this quarter. Bahrain already has takaful-specific rules but the regulatory refom could help it grab a larger chunk of the sector. The new rules, developed after two years of consultations with the industry, cover the operations and solvency of takaful firms. They are expected to increase takaful firms' ability to distribute surpluses to policy holders and dividends to shareholders. In addition, the new rules require financial reporting by takaful firms annually rather than once every three years, restrict the use of performance fees, and introduce the concept of earmarked assets. In December, the central bank formally combined existing rules for issuing and listing financial securities, including sukuk, in an effort to make the process more efficient.

For many years we see in the media experts believing in inflation and even hyper inflation. However, in the same time we face proponents warning against deflation. So far we all noticed.

Only a about a week ago I read an article by Myret Zaki clarifying that unfortunately inflation and deflation co-exists.

Myret Zaki's thesis is that we face inflation on financial markets, and deflation in the real economy (in French):

http://www.bilan.ch/myret-zaki/redaction-bilan/inflation-et-deflation-co...

In my view there is a general major shift in the price matrix and I still try to figure the magnitude and implications thereof. It is a bit irritating as at University we learned about neutrality of money:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrality_of_money

This means any extra supply will increase prices equally, 5 % more money, all prices going up 5 %. Pretty plausible at first hand. However, it seems it does not work in reality any more (or never did).

Persian Gulf government spending will help drive what may be a record year for Islamic bond sales, Fitch Ratings said, echoing HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) forecasts. Sales will probably match the 2012 high, the rating company said. Economic growth in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council countries and possible debut Islamic debt sales from the U.K. and Hong Kong will help the long-term outlook for sukuk sales, Fitch said. Qatar’s plans for the 2022 soccer world cup, Dubai’s preparations for the Expo world fair in 2020, and Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi’s spending commitments should boost issuance, according to the rating company.

The International Islamic Liquidity Management expanded its sukuk issuance programme today by auctioning US$860 million (RM2.85 billion) of three-month Islamic bonds at a yield of 0.55635 per cent. The issue brings the total amount of the IILM’s outstanding sukuk to US$1.35 billion. Its programme, launched last year, envisages issuance increasing eventually to as much as US$2 billion. The newest issue was sold to nine primary dealers from Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Since the programme’s launch, primary dealers have held on to the IILM instruments after auctions and there has been little if any secondary market trade in them.

Malaysia’s Islamic bond yield rose at its first sale of the debt in 2014 as the Federal Reserve’s stimulus cuts push up global borrowing costs. The April 2019 notes, a reissue of sukuk originally sold in October, yielded 3.953 percent, compared with 3.91 percent in the secondary market. The rate on the existing securities has since climbed to 3.97 percent, the highest level since Jan. 6. While yields climbed, today’s 3.5 billion ringgit ($1.1 billion) offering still attracted orders of 1.96 times, the highest ratio since September. Malaysia plans to hold 28 bond sales this year, including 12 for Shariah-compliant securities and 16 for non-Islamic notes.

Across the globe governments and corporates are attempting to take advantage of low interest rates caused by the US Federal Reserve’s extraordinary bond buying programme, locking in long term borrowing at peppercorn rates. The central bank of Qatar hopes to issue a mixture of conventional and Islamic government debt with a face value of $6.6bn. The debt programme will be at the shorter end of the yield curve and will be sold in three and five year tenors. Just under half the issuance will be Sukuk, with the rest in conventional instruments. Managing duration is very important for bond fund managers as it allows them to determine the risk on their total bond portfolio for a given move in interest rates. A longer duration bond will move more in value than a bond with a shorter duration for each 0.01 per cent (or 1 basis point) move in interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve will likely continue trimming its asset purchases by $10bn a month – from $85bn a month – until it stops altogether later this year.This will mean that historically low interest rates and fixed income yields could rise as the globe’s economies start to recover and inflation kicks in. Borrowers want to lock in those low rates now and this means a rush to issue. Data from Bloomberg show that planned Sukuk sales in Malaysia for January are already double those for the whole of January 2013. Corporates have announced $1.7bn in Sukuk compared to the $700m total sold in January last year. Depending on what happens to interest rates, global Sukuk issuance volumes seem likely to wane as rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases. The other major fear is that the China debt bubble will burst and send shockwaves through the world’s economies with the epicentre on South East Asia.

The infrastructure projects to be launched in Asean and the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) regions will continue to put Malaysia as the champion in the sukuk market next year, according to CIMB Islamic Bank. Its Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer Badlisyah Abdul Ghani said the sukuk market will perform positively in 2014, with a projection of between US$42bil (US$1=RM3.25) and US$48bil of new issuances led by Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. CIMB Islamic has so far topped the lead manager league table after arranging RM9.70bil worth of sukuk issuance, garnering a 25.9% market share. Out of 20 countries worldwide, Malaysia was ranked third in terms of total Shariah-compliant assets at US$196.820mil, with 41 institutions offering Shariah services, representing 63.7% of the total population.

A study discusses four major defaults on sukuk that have happened since 2007. These case studies make clear that most problems can be traced back to clauses and structures that made the Sukuk more like conventional bonds. Furthermore, once default happened, most of the Sukuk discussed did not transfer the underlying assets to the Sukuk holders. So, in the event of default, due to limited recourse provisions, Sukuk holders often had no collateral to resort to. The case studies highlight the importance of the legal institutions of the country where the collateral is likely to be contested. The conclusion of the study is that Islamic Finance is not failing to deliver on its promises because Shariah compliance implies a clear allocation of property rights.

Turkish Islamic lender Bank Asya applied to the regulator, the Capital Markets Board, to issue sukuk worth up to $500 million, the bank said on Friday. The bank made the statement to the Istanbul stock exchange.

Bank of London and The Middle East (BLME) expects Islamic bond issuance to pick up in the Gulf next year as companies refinance maturing debt in a strong economic climate. Scheduled sukuk maturities in Gulf Arab countries next year are expected to trigger a flurry of fresh issues. Many of the new sukuk will be larger than the instruments they replaced. Because of rising economic confidence in the Gulf, tenors of newly issued sukuk will likely become longer, with some moving out towards seven years from the five-year tenors which have dominated in recent years. BLME's assets under management include a $65 million sukuk fund rated A by Moody's Investors Service. Its balance sheet grew to 1.04 billion pounds ($1.7 billion) at the end of last year.

The UAE is in the final stages of creating debt issuance and listing regulations that will help develop a domestic credit market and encourage the sale of Islamic bonds. The Securities and Commodities Authority, or SCA, has circulated draft rules that for the first time to treat sukuk and non-Shariah compliant debt separately. The regulator is seeking feedback from market participants by the end of the year and “hopes” to enact the regulations early in 2014. The UAE must develop local debt markets to help state-run and private companies find alternatives to bank loans because it is the only one in the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council that doesn’t have a domestic, local-currency debt market.

Malaysia's BIMB Holdings will issue a RM1.7 billion ringgit Islamic bond to help raise the US$884 million (RM2.835 billion) it needs to buy the remaining 49% stake of Bank Islam. The 10-year sukuk will be sold to Tabung Haji, BIMB's biggest stakeholder, in a private placement. The bond is made available for the six months to May 27, 2014. IMB's plans were initially rejected by the central bank due to a proposal to secure the sukuk with shares of the company. BIMB in August announced plans to acquire the stake it does not own in Bank Islam held by Dubai Group and Tabung Haji.

The Central Bank of Bahrain yesterday announced that the monthly issue of the Sukuk Al Salam Islamic securities for the BD36 million issue, which carries a maturity of 91 days, has been oversubscribed by 102 per cent. The expected return on the issue, which begins tomorrow and matures on February 26 next year, is 0.85pc, compared with 0.85pc for the previous issue.

The CMA Board has issued its resolution approving the offering of Saudi Electricity Company's sukuk. The total offering size will be determined at a later stage by the Company. The prospectus will be published to the investors in due course.

Malaysia Building Society Bhd. (MBSB) will sell the nation’s first covered Islamic bonds to be backed by receivables, offering RM495 million of the debt next month. The sale will be the first portion of a RM3 billion programme announced last month and will be issued by Jana Kapital Sdn, a special-purpose company. The securities have been assigned an AA1 ranking by RAM Rating Services Bhd in Kuala Lumpur. The offer is part of the company’s strategy to expand its business and to cut costs to sustain earnings growth. The company will report record profits this year as its nine-month net income of RM464 million has already surpassed 2012’s full-year total of RM446.7 million.

Ooredoo QSC has mandated DBS Bank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, QInvest and QNB Capital to act as joint lead managers and Bookrunners for a proposed US dollar Reg S benchmark Sukuk offering. The offering is expected to be launched, subject to market conditions, following investor roadshows starting 22 November covering Asia, Middle East and Europe.

Saudi real estate firm Dar Al Arkan (B+ from S&P) has launched a $300 million, three-year sukuk offering at 6 percent. The Reg S only deal is expected to price later on Wednesday via Bank Al Khair, BAML, DB, Emirates NBD Capital and GS. The sukuk al-wakala will mature on Nov. 25, 2016.

Thomson Reuters has released the findings of its second consecutive Sukuk Perceptions and Forecast Study. Overall, the study found that the potential demand and supply pipeline of sukuk is expected to grow. Despite this increase, demand is still expected to outstrip supply substantially until 2014, when it is predicted supply will begin to outpace supply. On the demand side, investors expect 50 percent of their portfolios to be allocated to Islamic finance investments, out of which 25% to 35%, would be allocated to sukuk. MENA investors overwhelmingly prefer USD sukuk. Oman is viewed as the most attractive emerging Islamic finance market for sukuk investment. The study will be launched at the Global Islamic Economy Summit on 25th & 26th November 2013 in Dubai.

Al Madina Investment (Al Madina) has organized an event to celebrate the issuance of the first sukuk in Oman. Al Madina acted as the Principal Advisor, Joint Lead Arranger and Joint Lead Manager for the OMR50 million Sukuk Al Ijarah issued by Modern Sukuk on behalf of Tilal Development Company (TDC). The proceeds from the sukuk will be utilized for the expansion of TDC's flagship project - the Tilal Complex. In the event, Al Madina honors the stakeholders and also the participants in the sukuk by presenting them with an award for their contribution to successful issuance of the sukuk.